What OBTC will it take to break $20,000 BTC?

Based on historical data (usual caveats apply - limited sample, nascent asset, you know the drill) I would estimate $12,000 to $13,000 OBTC is required to sustain a BTC price of $20,000, given where we are in the market cycle, and enter price discovery mode.

Currently, we are at $9,000 OBTC, so there’s still a long way to go. I have often talked about how we’d like to see VG consolidate in the ~5–6 range for several months. For precisely this reason — let OBTC catch up to $12,000.

At the current rate of growth, it’ll take another 5-6 months to get there, putting us at May 2021. But, of course, this is bitcoin, things can accelerate or grind to a halt on a dime.

To be clear, it’s quite possible, probable even, that we briefly break $20,000 BTC well before then anyway. But it’ll likely prove to be unsustainable and require further consolidation before decisively breaking up into price discovery mode. For reference, if there was to be a rally to $20,000 tomorrow, it’d put VG at 7.3, which is almost certainly too high at this stage of the market cycle.

PS: Fixing a typo, it’s 2021, not 2011!

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously