BTC: $35,599
OBTC: $25,487
VG: 3.81

We’re continuing in this range — it’s been 4 weeks now — with VG ~5 rejected yet again. Of course, with some significant news leading to strong selling pressure, we’re being pushed to the bottom of the range. As mentioned before, we still remain in a very interesting scenario with no real historical precedence. I don’t have much more to add from a OBTC or VG perspective, unfortunately, but as always — do remain vigilant at times like these. I’ll remind you of the range of possibilities, though: the best case scenario, as mentioned before, would be a long sideways movement with a continuation upwards. As always, we can expect a continuation at VG ~5 or above. The worst case scenario would be heading into negative VG, which hasn’t happened since the March 2020 capitulation. This would imply a BTC price in the early $20Ks. Again, no idea what happens next! But that should help set your expectations.

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously