W/e 14-Feb-2021

OBTC
Feb 15, 2021

BTC: $48,829
OBTC: $17,219
VG: 8.63

Like I did on 8th Feb, a VG of 8.63 is overheated at this stage, and would have urged caution. However, as of writing this post the correction has already happened, and we’re sitting at $46,500 or VG ~8.4.

What is more important here is that on 8th Feb, VG 8.63 corresponded to $46,121. Now, it sits at $48,829. We’re not quite ready to break $50,000, but making progress steadily. Ideally, we’d like to consolidate just under $50K, with VG cooling off to the low 8s before having a fair shot at breaking through $50K. Of course, in this stage of the market cycle, right in the thick of the bull market — any impulse either way can override things in the short term.

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OBTC

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously