BTC: $22,789
OBTC: $10,365
VG: 7.25

There we have it. Once again, we have broken through historical expectations in terms of VG earlier than expected.

Could this be the beginning of the initial price discovery impulse? I’ll cover that in a more detailed post shortly after this.

If it is, we could be making a bee line for the VG ~8.5 region over the coming months. However, it remains just as likely we fall back into our consolidation range of ~5.75 to ~7 before moving on upwards, as VG ~7.25 is only just above our target. And as we have seen from our previous underestimation of the range, this cycle may indeed be more bullish than historical expectations on very limited data, in which case we have to accept a wider confidence interval. For reference, VG ~5.75 now corresponds to $18,300. This was only $17,600 just last week, at the last local bottom!

Anything can happen in the short term, so we have to wait and see how this resolves.

Longer term — since this is a macro blog, after all — we’re not only on track, but ahead of schedule at this time.

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously