Update —still in no man’s land

BTC: $29,767
OBTC: $25,099
VG: 2.11

I had said I’d do an update when something changes. Actually, nothing much has changed, but we did print the lowest daily price and VG for 2021. The situation remains the same:

  1. We’re in an unprecedented scenario— expected given BTC is a nascent asset with very limited history.
  2. We’re still ranging in no man’s land, a VG of 0 to 5.
  3. The best case scenario is retaking VG ~5 (currently at $40.5K) decisively, potentially kicking off a new bull trend. The worst case scenario would be a total capitulation to negative VG, around the low $20Ks. Since there’s no historical precedence, it’s unclear what will happen next.
  4. If you’re in for the long haul, a VG ~2–3 is attractive to DCA in, though we do tend to spend a long, long time in the VG 0–5 no man’s land so you must be patient.



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OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously