Update #8: When will BTC enter price discovery?
OBTC: $11,014
VG: 7.12
In Update #5: When will BTC enter price discovery? | by OBTC | Dec, 2020 | Medium, I speculated that $11,000 may just be enough, given this phase of the market cycle has been more bullish than historical expectations.
Just a week later, OBTC has now broken past $11,000. This is incredible, we have gone from $10,000 to $11,000 in just 10 days! The reason for this is clearly revealed by further on-chain analysis — huge chunks of BTC are moving off exchanges, especially from what is presumably Coinbase OTC desks to custodial cold storage. Mean transaction is spiking high, with single transactions as large as 12,000 BTC. Big money is positioning, in a big way — this is clearly captured on-chain, and in on-chain metrics like OBTC.
I continue to stand by my original guesstimate of $12,000 OBTC for confirming price discovery mode, but said mode is now imminent regardless.
VG continues to consolidate just above ~7, another very promising sign. This is the crucial flip we have been looking for, and things are looking very good thus far.
Given the current situation, only a significantly anomalous event (which we should always remain vigilant for) will detour BTC from confirming price discovery phase in January 2021. Pessimistic estimate is now moved up to February 2021.