Update #7: When will BTC enter price discovery?

OBTC has shot up past $10,800, marking a remarkable pace of $100 per day over the last week or so. This is the highest one week rise we have seen ever, although of course in % terms we did have some explosive weeks in 2013, 2017 etc as you’d expect. At this rate, we’ll hit our first, bullish target of $11,000 by this weekend. VG is nicely consolidating just above ~7, which is another positive sign. Of course, we could be here for a while, but the closer we get to our conservative $12,000 target, the more likely we’re on course to continue moving on upwards. At near $11,000, this move can be imminent, or take a few more weeks. Needless to say, don’t let short-term volatility bother you — your mission now is to, simply, HODL.

Our target remains at January 2021, as identified in our previous update. The conservative guesstimate has now been moved up to February 2021, and pessimistic scenario is now at March 2021. Note as how the closer we get to the magic $12,000 number, we continue narrowing down our timelines. Also, the current pessimistic scenario was once the optimistic scenario — once again emphasizing how much bullish the current phase of this market cycle has been compared to historical expectations. This is why I keep reiterating over and over and over again, BTC is still a nascent asset, and anything can happen in the short to medium term. OBTC & VG continue being remarkably useful in assessing the present, whatever BTC’s journey may be.



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OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously