Update #6: When will BTC enter price discovery?

You might be thinking… we already have! But as we have defined it before, it’s not just about breaking $20K, or $25K, even. It’s about establishing a strong base and then moving on up into uncharted territories.

BTC has taken a massive leap forward, to be sure, and well ahead of our expectations.

In the last update, I had speculated:

We have noted before that this phase of the market cycle has been more bullish in terms of VG, the same may also apply to OBTC. Certainly, the likelihood of breaking through into price discovery at $11,000 OBTC is a lot higher than $9,000 OBTC.

This may well be the case, and if this cycle continues being more bullish than historical expectations, we may well be confirming price discovery phase as early as January 2021. OBTC is currently at ~$10,400. While this is still short of my target of $12,000, we’re certainly much closer than ever before, and at this time I can definitely see the possibility of being in early price discovery if the market continues being more bullish than historical expectations. As the gap narrows, the more confident we’ll be about our estimates. Pessimistic scenario has now moved up to May 2021, with status quo now February 2021.

However, I would still note some caution here, and falling back under VG ~7 is a distinct possibility. So, at this time, we’ll just have to wait and see how it develops.



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OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously