BTC: $32,986
OBTC: $15,036
VG: 7.25
I haven’t been making frequent updates of late because there simply hasn’t been much to report. That said, I see a notable amount of panic on the streets, so thought I’d do this update.
In short, nothing has changed. Just to remind you, these were the expectations:
It’s definitely worth keeping in mind that the days following a significant correction will often see very high volatility, so it’s important to stay resolute or take advantage of it.
Now, it’s just a waiting game for the markets to settle (we’re seeing some temporary uncertainty outside of crypto too) before resuming price discovery. When and how that will happen, remains to be seen. As always, we’ll be here assessing the here and now every step of the way.
The first price discovery phase ends, onwards to the next! | by OBTC | Jan, 2021 | Medium
Nothing has changed. Expect high volatility while this consolidation & re-accumulation range resolves. It’s just a waiting game. We don’t have any precise targets to follow unlike previous phases of the market cycle, as the first attempt at price discovery is always volatile and unpredictable. This is a great time to HODL and re-accumulate, depending on your strategy.
What we should be looking at is consolidating above VG ~7, which is exactly what is happening now. Yesterday, we saw a wick just below 7 — that’s fine too. As a reminder, in 2017 we had very short-lived wicks even below 6, but VG always tends to recover to 7 and above quickly in price discovery phases.
Of course, it’s worth discussing invalidation points. There’s currently no indication whatsoever that we are entering a bear trend, but this is BTC and anything is possible and must be considered. What we should be looking at is closing an entire week under VG ~6. Of course, to reiterate, this seems a very unlikely outcome at this point — going beyond OBTC, every single on-chain metric is signaling a classic mid-bull consolidation.
