Since the start of this blog, OBTC has gone through one iteration — moving to a simplified formula that’d let Coinmetrics’ FreeFloat Supply do most of the heavy lifting. However, we have had a new set of investors over the last 3–4 months, with an unprecedented number of tokens moving to cold wallets, removed from liquid supply indefinitely. This is very different from the previous decade-long history of BTC, which had a much more gradual curve to long-term investors, while most of the active supply constantly featured a high velocity.

Unfortunately, as mentioned in Coinmetrics’ latest State of the Network (Coin Metrics’ State of the Network: Issue 90 — Coin Metrics’ State of the Network (substack.com) these coins are currently not excluded from FF Supply. So, moving forward, I’ll be excluding a list of confirmed token supply that can be deemed removed from FF Supply for the foreseeable future.

Unlike the move to v2, all calibration factors will be removed, and there’ll be no backwards compatibility. So, there’ll be a big one day jump, but from here we’ll get a better indication for OBTC.

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously