OBTC breaks $20,000

BTC: $57,500
OBTC: $20,085
VG: 8.68

From last week:

Like I did on 8th Feb, a VG of 8.63 is overheated at this stage, and would have urged caution. However, as of writing this post the correction has already happened, and we’re sitting at $46,500 or VG ~8.4.

Déjà vu? Except we’re up nearly $10,000 since then. At the time of writing this update, BTC price is $55,400, which is a VG of ~8.5. While we’re undoubtedly in the thick of an intense bubble, and a negative impulse could lead to further correction, we’re still targeting VG over 9 before we’re confident that the end is near for the short term. A parabolic blow off top VG >9.5 could even signal a medium to long term top. Of course, these are for informational purposes, at this time we have no idea where this phase 2 of price discovery will end.

More interestingly, OBTC has now broken $20,000. For some perspective, it took Bitcoin 4,363 days to reach an OBTC of $10,000. The second $10,000 was reached in just 71 days. This is indeed a faster rate of OBTC increases than in 2017.

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously