Unfortunately, due to a change in Coinmetrics, I can no longer export data in CSV format, which is something I need for calculating OBTC and VG. They have switched to only allowing PNG exports, so it’s no use for me. Perhaps one could write a script to do that work…

BTC: $45,985
OBTC: $26,548
VG: 5.69

At this point, we’ve been above VG ~5 for over a week. We can very likely invalidate a multi-year bear market from the $64K peak. There are no historical patterns quite like what we’ve seen over the last 4–5 months or so. However, keeping…

BTC: $43,972
OBTC: $26,211
VG: 5.43

OBTC has hit a new ATH at $26,211. This doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about where we’re in the market, though. Indeed, the 2017/18 OBTC high was set in May 2018 — a full 5 months after the BTC high and the bear market commencing…

BTC: $41,793
OBTC: $25,884
VG: 5.12

Apologize for the repetition — but over the last 2.5 months it’s been about one question — can we break above VG 5? The answer is, we have just done so, albeit barely. The next question is if this holds? As always, we’ll need…

BTC: $39,939
OBTC: $25,529
VG: 4.85

We’re hovering right below VG ~5. As mentioned several times before, this is our pivotal point where we exit no man’s land into a bullish trend. Since the big correction in May, we’ve been rejected off VG ~5 multiple times fairly quickly, though this…

BTC: $37,445
OBTC: $25,214
VG: 4.39

As mentioned in previous post, VG ~5 remains our target, currently at ~$40,500. Interestingly, there was an intraday candle right at that, but ultimately we closed much lower at $37,445. Certainly some spicy volatility yesterday, after a fair while. However, from our perspective, we’re…

BTC: $29,767
OBTC: $25,099
VG: 2.11

I had said I’d do an update when something changes. Actually, nothing much has changed, but we did print the lowest daily price and VG for 2021. The situation remains the same:

  1. We’re in an unprecedented scenario— expected given BTC is a nascent asset…

BTC: $35,355
OBTC: $25,114
VG: 3.89

It’s been a pretty boring 6 weeks, to say the least, with BTC going sideways after the big correction. While I had previously said I’d do weekly updates at the least, I don’t think these are really required, as I’ve just been repeating myself…

BTC: $34,506
OBTC: $24,976
VG: 3.63

It’s been 40 days in this range. Pretty much nothing else to add right now. As a reminder, our target to look out for is VG ~5, which is currently at $40,400. On the other side, $25,000 is VG 0, and anything under that…

BTC: $35,599
OBTC: $25,487
VG: 3.81

We’re continuing in this range — it’s been 4 weeks now — with VG ~5 rejected yet again. Of course, with some significant news leading to strong selling pressure, we’re being pushed to the bottom of the range. As mentioned before, we still remain…


OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously

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