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Unfortunately, due to a change in Coinmetrics, I can no longer export data in CSV format, which is something I need for calculating OBTC and VG. They have switched to only allowing PNG exports, so it’s no use for me. Perhaps one could write a script to do that work, but I don’t have the bandwidth to look into it at this time. As such, I will no longer be able to continue updating the blog regularly.

However, I’ll continue to make occasional updates with some rough estimations during crucial pivotal points. So, don’t expect frequent updates, but also, I’m not abandoning this just yet. Longer time, I may look into alternate data sources.

For now, though, I’m concentrating on my other blog which delves deep into blockchain tech like rollups: https://polynya.medium.com/. Please join me there if you’re interested in the tech!


BTC: $45,985
OBTC: $26,548
VG: 5.69

At this point, we’ve been above VG ~5 for over a week. We can very likely invalidate a multi-year bear market from the $64K peak. There are no historical patterns quite like what we’ve seen over the last 4–5 months or so. However, keeping above VG ~5 is a positive sign. Any sideways movement here is healthy. As mentioned, breaking VG ~7 is where things start to heat up. Currently, that corresponds to $55,500, but as OBTC is going up, this will increase systematically.


BTC: $43,972
OBTC: $26,211
VG: 5.43

OBTC has hit a new ATH at $26,211. This doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about where we’re in the market, though. Indeed, the 2017/18 OBTC high was set in May 2018 — a full 5 months after the BTC high and the bear market commencing. Nevertheless, it’s a good sign to see new investors and more hodlers.

We’re still in the decisive VG ~5 territory. It’s still too early to say if we can hold it — we’ll need at least a week more above VG ~5 to confirm it. If VG ~5 is held, it makes a long-term bear market highly improbable. A full blown bull trend only happens at VG ~7 or so — which is currently at $55,000.


BTC: $41,793
OBTC: $25,884
VG: 5.12

Apologize for the repetition — but over the last 2.5 months it’s been about one question — can we break above VG 5? The answer is, we have just done so, albeit barely. The next question is if this holds? As always, we’ll need to give it some time. A decisive new bull trend lies at VG ~7 and above, which is currently at $54,000.


BTC: $39,939
OBTC: $25,529
VG: 4.85

We’re hovering right below VG ~5. As mentioned several times before, this is our pivotal point where we exit no man’s land into a bullish trend. Since the big correction in May, we’ve been rejected off VG ~5 multiple times fairly quickly, though this time, we’re staying in this zone for 3 days now. We’ll have to wait and see if we continue in the range under VG ~5, or we can decisively break it to the upside.


BTC: $37,445
OBTC: $25,214
VG: 4.39

As mentioned in previous post, VG ~5 remains our target, currently at ~$40,500. Interestingly, there was an intraday candle right at that, but ultimately we closed much lower at $37,445. Certainly some spicy volatility yesterday, after a fair while. However, from our perspective, we’re still in the sideways no man’s land zone. I’ll update as we get closer to VG ~5 and see if we can break through.

The last time BTC broke through VG ~5 was when price was $14,000 in November 2020. We’ve come a long way since!


BTC: $29,767
OBTC: $25,099
VG: 2.11

I had said I’d do an update when something changes. Actually, nothing much has changed, but we did print the lowest daily price and VG for 2021. The situation remains the same:

  1. We’re in an unprecedented scenario— expected given BTC is a nascent asset with very limited history.
  2. We’re still ranging in no man’s land, a VG of 0 to 5.
  3. The best case scenario is retaking VG ~5 (currently at $40.5K) decisively, potentially kicking off a new bull trend. The worst case scenario would be a total capitulation to negative VG, around the…


BTC: $35,355
OBTC: $25,114
VG: 3.89

It’s been a pretty boring 6 weeks, to say the least, with BTC going sideways after the big correction. While I had previously said I’d do weekly updates at the least, I don’t think these are really required, as I’ve just been repeating myself. So, the next update will be when something changes. Anything! As of now, we’re continuing our status quo, operating sideways under VG ~5.


BTC: $34,506
OBTC: $24,976
VG: 3.63

It’s been 40 days in this range. Pretty much nothing else to add right now. As a reminder, our target to look out for is VG ~5, which is currently at $40,400. On the other side, $25,000 is VG 0, and anything under that signals a negative VG, a complete capitulation and no-brainer buys. In this range, we continue to be in “no man’s land” without any real precedence from Bitcoin’s very limited history. Could be a fairly good time, if not the best (see above), to accumulate if you’re in for the long haul, though.


BTC: $35,599
OBTC: $25,487
VG: 3.81

We’re continuing in this range — it’s been 4 weeks now — with VG ~5 rejected yet again. Of course, with some significant news leading to strong selling pressure, we’re being pushed to the bottom of the range. As mentioned before, we still remain in a very interesting scenario with no real historical precedence. I don’t have much more to add from a OBTC or VG perspective, unfortunately, but as always — do remain vigilant at times like these. I’ll remind you of the range of possibilities, though: the best case scenario, as mentioned…

OBTC

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously

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