This blog has now been live for nearly 6 months, and after multiple requests, it’s time to do an updated introduction. This blog is all about discussing and analysing BTC purely from an OBTC perspective. I tend to analyse market conditions in the here and now, so this is not really a blog for forecasting future price and such — although this is something that can certainly be done using OBTC data.
OBTC is a model to value macro demand and supply for BTC using on-chain metrics. The idea is to look into the chain, understand the behaviour of market…
Apologize for the repetition — but over the last 2.5 months it’s been about one question — can we break above VG 5? The answer is, we have just done so, albeit barely. The next question is if this holds? As always, we’ll need to give it some time. A decisive new bull trend lies at VG ~7 and above, which is currently at $54,000.
We’re hovering right below VG ~5. As mentioned several times before, this is our pivotal point where we exit no man’s land into a bullish trend. Since the big correction in May, we’ve been rejected off VG ~5 multiple times fairly quickly, though this time, we’re staying in this zone for 3 days now. We’ll have to wait and see if we continue in the range under VG ~5, or we can decisively break it to the upside.
As mentioned in previous post, VG ~5 remains our target, currently at ~$40,500. Interestingly, there was an intraday candle right at that, but ultimately we closed much lower at $37,445. Certainly some spicy volatility yesterday, after a fair while. However, from our perspective, we’re still in the sideways no man’s land zone. I’ll update as we get closer to VG ~5 and see if we can break through.
The last time BTC broke through VG ~5 was when price was $14,000 in November 2020. We’ve come a long way since!
I had said I’d do an update when something changes. Actually, nothing much has changed, but we did print the lowest daily price and VG for 2021. The situation remains the same:
It’s been a pretty boring 6 weeks, to say the least, with BTC going sideways after the big correction. While I had previously said I’d do weekly updates at the least, I don’t think these are really required, as I’ve just been repeating myself. So, the next update will be when something changes. Anything! As of now, we’re continuing our status quo, operating sideways under VG ~5.
It’s been 40 days in this range. Pretty much nothing else to add right now. As a reminder, our target to look out for is VG ~5, which is currently at $40,400. On the other side, $25,000 is VG 0, and anything under that signals a negative VG, a complete capitulation and no-brainer buys. In this range, we continue to be in “no man’s land” without any real precedence from Bitcoin’s very limited history. Could be a fairly good time, if not the best (see above), to accumulate if you’re in for the long haul, though.
We’re continuing in this range — it’s been 4 weeks now — with VG ~5 rejected yet again. Of course, with some significant news leading to strong selling pressure, we’re being pushed to the bottom of the range. As mentioned before, we still remain in a very interesting scenario with no real historical precedence. I don’t have much more to add from a OBTC or VG perspective, unfortunately, but as always — do remain vigilant at times like these. I’ll remind you of the range of possibilities, though: the best case scenario, as mentioned…
OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously