Unfortunately, due to a change in Coinmetrics, I can no longer export data in CSV format, which is something I need for calculating OBTC and VG. They have switched to only allowing PNG exports, so it’s no use for me. Perhaps one could write a script to do that work…

BTC: $45,985
OBTC: $26,548
VG: 5.69

At this point, we’ve been above VG ~5 for over a week. We can very likely invalidate a multi-year bear market from the $64K peak. There are no historical patterns quite like what we’ve seen over the last 4–5 months or so. However, keeping…

BTC: $43,972
OBTC: $26,211
VG: 5.43

OBTC has hit a new ATH at $26,211. This doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about where we’re in the market, though. Indeed, the 2017/18 OBTC high was set in May 2018 — a full 5 months after the BTC high and the bear market commencing…

BTC: $41,793
OBTC: $25,884
VG: 5.12

Apologize for the repetition — but over the last 2.5 months it’s been about one question — can we break above VG 5? The answer is, we have just done so, albeit barely. The next question is if this holds? As always, we’ll need…

BTC: $39,939
OBTC: $25,529
VG: 4.85

We’re hovering right below VG ~5. As mentioned several times before, this is our pivotal point where we exit no man’s land into a bullish trend. Since the big correction in May, we’ve been rejected off VG ~5 multiple times fairly quickly, though this…

BTC: $37,445
OBTC: $25,214
VG: 4.39

As mentioned in previous post, VG ~5 remains our target, currently at ~$40,500. Interestingly, there was an intraday candle right at that, but ultimately we closed much lower at $37,445. Certainly some spicy volatility yesterday, after a fair while. However, from our perspective, we’re…

BTC: $35,355
OBTC: $25,114
VG: 3.89

It’s been a pretty boring 6 weeks, to say the least, with BTC going sideways after the big correction. While I had previously said I’d do weekly updates at the least, I don’t think these are really required, as I’ve just been repeating myself…

BTC: $34,506
OBTC: $24,976
VG: 3.63

It’s been 40 days in this range. Pretty much nothing else to add right now. As a reminder, our target to look out for is VG ~5, which is currently at $40,400. On the other side, $25,000 is VG 0, and anything under that…



OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously