29th November 2020 — $9,585 / 6.28

BTC: $18,190
OBTC: $9,585
VG: 6.28

VG is back above 6 once again. We saw something unprecedented from 16th to 23th November — VG consolidating in the ~6–6.5 range, instead of ~5–6 historically. Of course, it did end up rejecting when it exited that and moved up to ~7, as expected per prior history. I’d remind you time and time again, that BTC is a nascent asset with very limited sampling, and until it matures, each cycle will behave differently. While we want to see it consolidate in the ~5–6 range, if this phase is more bullish than late 2016, a consolidation phase at~6–6.5 is not out of the question. The important thing is to use OBTC and VG as a tool to know where we are in the bigger picture.

General inference remains the same, BTC is building up to enter price discovery mode — but at this stage it’ll likely take well into 2021 to do so convincingly. However, things can change very quickly, and we’ll continue to assess the situation in the here and now as we continue along this cycle.

Whether up, down, or sideways, OBTC continues its journey ever upwards. The crucial VG ~7 mark has moved up to a BTC price of $20,300. We’d like to see this at around $25,000 before being confident of entering price discovery mode; but clearing the prior ATH and the $20,000 psychological mark is certainly a good sign.


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OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously