26th November 2020 — $9,487 / 5.92

BTC: $17,114
OBTC: $9,487
VG: 5.97

After spending a fair bit of time above the ~5–6 “healthy consolidation” region, VG is finally back under 6, albeit barely so. As always, OBTC is not about short-term price movements, but I’ll share some observations anyway. This BTC rally did not feature a blow-off top like most BTC rallies of this magnitude, including Q4 2016, a rally it shares several similarities with otherwise (as discussed two updates ago). However, it’s rather curious the correction did come at pretty much the same instantaneous VG (~6.9). So did the June 2019 rally. The ~7 VG continues to be an important pivot. This is one more data point add to our limited sample.

As I’ve mentioned several times before, what we’d like to see here is VG consolidate in the ~5–6 region for several months — that’s the healthiest way build up a base to eventually break the 7 VG barrier. Of course, it can also take a more volatile path.

It’s important to note that once again, despite a 15% correction, OBTC continues its journey upwards, now nearly $9,500, so the boundaries of the ~5–6 region continue moving up.

OBTC is an attempt to value BTC using on-chain activity. I’m just a bitcoin investor, not a professional quant, please do not take this conjecture too seriously